Follow Live Updates on Nationals vs Marlins – Friday, May 8th, 2026

Washington Nationals

@

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals Insights

• Foster Griffin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Foster Griffin has averaged 17 outs per start this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Daylen Lile has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  James Wood has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Otto Lopez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last season’s 88.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Joe Mack, Christopher Morel, Heriberto Hernandez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.70 Units / 29% ROI)