Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Reds vs Cubs – 5/5/2026

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Andrew Abbott has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Chicago’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.3% more often this season (64.9%) than he did last year (54.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have hit 32.6% of their balls in the air 100 mph or faster this year, ranking them as the #9 squad in Major League Baseball by this standard.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.50 Units / 106% ROI)