Official Lineup for Twins vs Nationals - 5/05/2026

-115O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-105

Taj Bradley – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
Taj Bradley has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 12.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Kody Clemens is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Kody Clemens pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Cade Cavalli has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.2% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Jose Tena has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 99.7-mph in the last two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Washington Nationals – Moneyline (-105)
The Washington Nationals projected batting order grades out as the worst on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+7.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1800)
Brooks Lee has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+29.00 Units / 322% ROI)

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