Understand the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Brewers Head-to-Head Insights April 24th, 2026

-110O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-110

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 12.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 24.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.2% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Brandon Woodruff has utilized his four-seam fastball 7.5% more often this season (38.4%) than he did last season (30.9%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Over the past week, Jake Bauers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all major league teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI)

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