Understand the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Brewers Head-to-Head Insights April 24th, 2026

-135O/U: 7
(-110/-110)+115

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.1% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-most strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
Brandon Woodruff has utilized his four-seam fastball 7.5% more often this season (38.4%) than he did last season (30.9%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
There has been a significant decline in Brandon Lockridge’s launch angle from last season’s 1.6° to -2.3° this season.
Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)

Related Posts