Phillies vs Mets Best Bets and Expert Picks - Friday June 26, 2026

-155O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+135

Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Given his large platoon split, Zack Wheeler will be at a disadvantage matching up with 7 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Kyle Schwarber has big-time HR ability (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zach Thornton doesn’t generate many whiffs (12th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-155)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-205)
Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.00 Units / 25% ROI)

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