Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Texas Rangers
-110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Out of all starters, Carmen Mlodzinski’s fastball spin rate of 2131.9 rpm is in the 17th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Oneil Cruz has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100-mph average to last season’s 97.3-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Considering that groundball pitchers have a notable edge over groundball batters, Kumar Rocker and his 46.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in this outing going up against 2 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Extreme flyball bats like Danny Jansen usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Carmen Mlodzinski.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-110)The 4th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Texas Rangers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.0 (-150)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.70 Units / 77% ROI)