Review the Latest Player Stats for Athletics vs Mariners – Monday, April 20th, 2026

Athletics

@

Seattle Mariners

Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. J.T. Ginn has gone to his secondary offerings 5% more often this season (55.5%) than he did last season (50.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  In comparison to his 92.7-mph average last year, Nick Kurtz’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 98.3 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Athletics have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Kurtz, Max Muncy, Denzel Clarke).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Emerson Hancock’s fastball spin rate has risen 144 rpm this season (2532 rpm) over where it was last year (2388 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball bats like Cal Raleigh tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like J.T. Ginn.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+7.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+140)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 away games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 25% ROI)