Rays vs Pirates Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 4/17/2026

Tampa Bay Rays

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Nick Martinez projects to allow an average of 3.15 earned runs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jonathan Aranda has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 9.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Bubba Chandler’s high utilization rate of his fastball (55.9% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan O’Hearn may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.1% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-most strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-190)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+18.45 Units / 92% ROI)