Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Mets vs Rockies – Tuesday, August 06, 2024

New York Mets

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Colorado Rockies

On August 6, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the New York Mets at Coors Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season with a record of 41-72, while the Mets are performing above average at 59-53. The Rockies’ woes have been compounded by a lackluster bullpen, ranked 28th in MLB, which has contributed to their disappointing campaign.

In their most recent outing, the Rockies faced a tough opponent, but they have been particularly cold lately, struggling to string together victories. Meanwhile, the Mets are coming off a solid performance, showcasing their strength as one of the top offensive teams in the league, ranking 8th overall. Their ability to hit home runs is especially noteworthy, as they sit 4th in that category.

On the mound, the Rockies are expected to start Kyle Freeland, who has had a challenging season with a 3-4 record and an ERA of 5.64. Freeland projects to pitch around 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 3.9 earned runs, which does not inspire confidence. The projections suggest he has been unlucky this season, but his current form still raises concerns.

Luis Severino, the Mets’ starter, has been more effective, with a 7-4 record and a respectable ERA of 3.93. Severino’s ability to limit damage will be crucial, especially against a Rockies offense that ranks 16th overall. However, he is also projected to allow 3.5 earned runs, which could keep the Rockies competitive if they can capitalize on their opportunities.

With a high Game Total of 11.0 runs, bettors should expect a potentially high-scoring affair, particularly with the Rockies’ implied team total sitting at 4.95 runs, suggesting they may find some offensive rhythm against Severino. The Rockies will need to harness their power at the plate to challenge the Mets effectively, making this matchup one to watch closely.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Luis Severino’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (60.7 vs. 48.9% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+120/-155)
  Colorado’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jose Iglesias, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the New York Mets will record 6.85 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Kyle Freeland’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 2.9-mph jump from last year’s 88.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Elias Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 101 games (+11.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games at home (+10.70 Units / 59% ROI)