Simulation and Insights for Twins vs Orioles Match Preview – Saturday March 28, 2026

Minnesota Twins

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Baltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Out of all SPs, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15.6° figure is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (#4 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Bradish to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Since the start of last season, Pete Alonso has an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph, which is one of the best in the league at the 98th percentile.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 9.3% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles makes them the #8 squad in the league since the start of last season by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 141 games (+30.03 Units / 19% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 away games (+13.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.95 Units / 33% ROI)