D-Backs vs Padres Injury Report – Sunday, September 28, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres

On September 28, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres, currently holding a strong 89-72 record, are in a good position, while the Diamondbacks sit at 80-81, having had a mediocre season. In their last matchup, the Padres secured a convincing 5-1 victory, showcasing their strengths against a struggling D-Backs team.

Nick Pivetta, projected to start for the Padres, has been solid this season with a 13-5 record and a stellar 2.87 ERA. His recent performances have been a mix of effectiveness, as he pitched 6 innings with 3 earned runs in his last start. Pivetta’s ability to limit runs will be crucial, especially given that the D-Backs rank 5th in MLB for offensive production this season. However, his projections suggest he might allow 2.2 earned runs today, which aligns with his overall performance.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has struggled with a 5.00 ERA this year and is viewed unfavorably in advanced metrics. His last outing was decent, allowing 3 earned runs over 6 innings, but he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 7th in batting average and has shown resilience against pitchers like him. Pfaadt’s low strikeout rate could hinder his effectiveness against a Padres offense that rarely strikes out.

Betting markets currently favor the Padres with a moneyline of -125, reflecting their stronger season and home advantage. While the Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, the Padres’ offense may provide the edge needed to capitalize on Pfaadt’s vulnerabilities. Expect a competitive matchup as both teams aim to assert their strengths on the diamond.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Throwing 92.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under Total Bases
  Gabriel Moreno has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 82.7-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Nick Pivetta has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under Total Bases
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (0.0) implies that Luis Arraez has experienced some positive variance this year with his 7.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under Total Bases
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 156 games (+13.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 126 games (+13.55 Units / 8% ROI)