Discover Current Player Trends for Pirates vs Reds – Tuesday September 23, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 23, 2025, the stakes are high for the Reds, who currently sit at 80-76 and are looking to solidify their position in the National League Central. Meanwhile, the Pirates are struggling at 67-89, reflecting a disappointing season. In their last matchup, the Reds edged out the Pirates with a narrow 1-0 victory, which highlights the ongoing struggles of Pittsburgh, who have found themselves on the wrong side of a lopsided 11-0 loss in their previous outing.

The Reds will send Brady Singer to the mound, and he’s coming off a solid performance where he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out six batters. This season, Singer has shown he can be a reliable starter with a Win/Loss record of 14-10 and an ERA of 3.86. He’s projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today while allowing 2.7 earned runs, which aligns with his overall season performance as an average starter per advanced metrics.

On the other hand, the Pirates will counter with Johan Oviedo, whose season has not gone as planned. Despite a Win/Loss record of 2-0 and an ERA of 3.52, he’s projected to pitch only 4.9 innings today and could struggle, especially given his xFIP of 4.92, suggesting he may have been somewhat fortunate this year.

Offensively, the Reds rank as the 19th best offense in MLB, while the Pirates sit dead last, at 30th, indicating a stark contrast in run production. The Reds’ strong showing, combined with the Pirates’ weaknesses and recent performances, makes Cincinnati a clear favorite. Betting lines currently show a moneyline of -170 for the Reds, reflecting their status as a strong betting choice. Overall, this matchup looks favorable for the Reds as they aim to continue their momentum and push for a strong finish to the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Johan Oviedo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starting pitchers, Johan Oviedo’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph ranks in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Oneil Cruz’s true offensive ability to be a .350, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .052 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .298 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Brady Singer has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.6 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Spencer Steer has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 128 games (+26.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 150 games (+23.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)