Discover Current Player Trends for Pirates vs Reds – Tuesday September 23, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

On September 23, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Reds enter this matchup with an 80-76 record, reflecting an average season, while the Pirates sit at 67-89, struggling significantly with the worst offense in MLB. This game carries weight for the Reds as they seek to secure a winning record.

Cincinnati’s Brady Singer, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start. With a solid 14-10 record and a respectable ERA of 3.86, Singer has been a reliable arm for the Reds, despite allowing an average of 5.2 hits per game, which raises some concerns. His performance aligns with his ranking as the 113th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s an average performer but could be more effective against a struggling lineup like Pittsburgh’s.

On the other side, the Pirates will send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Although he boasts a 2-0 record and a commendable ERA of 3.52, his 4.92 xFIP suggests he might be due for regression. Oviedo has only started 7 games this season, and his projections indicate he may struggle, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Reds rank 19th in MLB, while the Pirates are dead last at 30th. Cincinnati’s best hitter has been on a tear lately, contributing significantly with 10 RBIs and 4 home runs over the past week. This offensive edge, combined with the strength of their bullpen, ranked 10th in MLB, gives the Reds a favorable outlook as they look to capitalize on the Pirates’ weaknesses. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Reds emerge as the betting favorites with an implied team total of 4.62 runs, suggesting they could find success against a faltering Pittsburgh squad.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Johan Oviedo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all starting pitchers, Johan Oviedo’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph ranks in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Oneil Cruz’s true offensive ability to be a .350, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .052 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .298 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #25 club in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Brady Singer has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.6 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Matt McLain is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 128 games (+26.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 150 games (+23.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-205)
  Noelvi Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 42% ROI)