Yankees vs Orioles Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 9/20/25

New York Yankees

@

Baltimore Orioles

On September 20, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what promises to be a riveting matchup in the American League East. The Yankees are coming off a strong performance, recently securing a victory against the Orioles, further solidifying their position as a playoff contender. Meanwhile, the Orioles, with a record of 73-81, have struggled all season and find themselves in a below-average position.

The pitching matchup features the Orioles’ Tomoyuki Sugano against the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon. Sugano, projected to start, has had a lackluster season, ranking 247th among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 4.39 ERA is average, but his 5.78 xERA suggests he has been fortunate and may face challenges ahead. Sugano is a low-strikeout pitcher, which could be advantageous against a Yankees lineup that strikes out frequently.

On the other hand, Carlos Rodon has been impressive, boasting a 3.11 ERA and ranking 66th among MLB starters. His ability to pitch deeper into games is reflected in his average projection of 5.3 innings today, and he typically strikes out around 6.2 batters per game. However, his high walk rate of 9.6% may be a concern against an Orioles offense that is patient but ranks 20th overall in MLB.

The Yankees’ offense is the 1st best in the league, featuring a powerful lineup that excels in home runs, while the Orioles’ offense struggles, ranking just 20th. With an implied team total of 5.18 runs for the Yankees compared to 3.82 for the Orioles, oddsmakers clearly favor the visitors. Given the current trends and performance metrics, this matchup leans heavily in favor of New York, but baseball is always unpredictable.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Carlos Rodon has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Aaron Judge has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.6-mph to 100.7-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Tomoyuki Sugano’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (65.5% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Ryan Mountcastle has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 10.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal lower than his 21.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 149 games (+21.43 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 72 games (+16.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+130/-170)
  Carlos Rodon has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)