Braves vs Nationals Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 9/17/2025

Atlanta Braves

@

Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on September 17, 2025, they find themselves at the tail end of a disappointing season, holding a record of 62-90. The Braves, at 69-83, are also struggling but have shown some signs of competitiveness. In their last outing, the Nationals fell to the Braves, marking the third game in this series, and adding to their woes.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Brad Lord for the Nationals and Hurston Waldrep for the Braves. Lord has had a difficult year, with a 5-8 record and a 4.21 ERA, ranking him as the 124th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He projects to pitch only 5.0 innings on average, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and his stats reveal concerning trends with 4.9 hits allowed per outing.

In contrast, Waldrep, despite being labeled one of the worst pitchers in MLB, has a much better record of 4-1 and an impressive 2.78 ERA. However, his projected xFIP of 4.04 suggests he may be due for a downturn, making his matchup against a struggling Nationals offense even more intriguing. The Nationals rank 23rd in MLB for offensive production, and their lack of power is evident as they sit 27th in home runs this season.

Interestingly, Washington’s best hitter has been on a hot streak, recording a .370 batting average over the last week, which could provide some spark against Waldrep. However, the Braves have their own offensive weapon, boasting a higher implied team total of 4.62 runs compared to the Nationals’ 3.88.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, it could be a tight contest, especially with both teams showing vulnerabilities. The Nationals, currently the underdogs with a moneyline of +130, will need every ounce of effort to turn their fortunes around in this mid-September clash.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Hurston Waldrep – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Hurston Waldrep has averaged 17 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bradley Lord’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (64.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  James Wood has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.7-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Adams, James Wood, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 71 of their last 125 games (+12.87 Units / 9% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)