See the Score for Orioles vs White Sox Game – September 16th, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on September 16, 2025, both teams find themselves in a challenging season. The White Sox, sitting at 57-94, are enduring a rough stretch, marked by last night’s defeat to the Orioles, where they lost 4-1. Meanwhile, the Orioles, with a record of 70-80, are also struggling to find consistency, but they took advantage of the White Sox’s woes in their recent matchup.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start Shane Smith, who has had an up-and-down year with a 6-7 record and a solid ERA of 3.78. Despite his decent performance metrics, advanced projections suggest he might have benefited from some good fortune, as his xFIP of 4.46 indicates potential regression. Smith’s last outing was impressive, going six innings with no earned runs, which may fuel his confidence.

Conversely, Dean Kremer will take the hill for the Orioles. While Kremer’s season hasn’t been stellar, he has managed to maintain a 4.43 ERA and a 9-10 record. His last start was abbreviated; he pitched just three innings but did not allow any earned runs, which is an encouraging sign. However, his overall metrics show he is also below average.

Offensively, the White Sox rank an unfortunate 28th in the league. Their struggles at the plate are compounded by a projected team total of just 4.00 runs for today’s game. In contrast, the Orioles, ranked 20th offensively, show slightly better form but still fall into the below-average category. With both bullpens rated differently—Chicago’s being the 4th best compared to Baltimore’s 22nd—the White Sox’s relief options might be a key factor in this contest.

Given the dynamics of the matchups, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the White Sox, driven by the need to turn their season around, pull off a competitive performance at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Dean Kremer gave up a whopping 5 earned runs in his last game started.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Coby Mayo’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 81.8-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Colton Cowser has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Shane Smith is projected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  As it relates to his home runs, Colson Montgomery has had positive variance on his side this year. His 46.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 34.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago White Sox projected lineup ranks as the 5th-worst of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.0 (-155)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 77 of their last 128 games (+14.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 98 games (+19.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Edgar Quero has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.60 Units / 82% ROI)