D-Backs vs Pirates Picks and Betting Odds – 7/29/2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the best among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Compared to the average starter, Jared Jones has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -15.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Marcell Ozuna has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 8.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 67% ROI)