Braves vs Nationals Prediction and Game Breakdown – Tuesday September 16, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on September 16, 2025, the stakes are low for both teams, who are well out of playoff contention. The Nationals currently sit at 62-89, while the Braves are slightly better at 68-83. The matchup marks the second game of a double-header, and both teams will likely rest some players after yesterday’s game, where the Braves triumphed 11-3 over the Nationals.

On the mound, the Nationals will send out MacKenzie Gore, who has had a tumultuous season with a 5-14 record and a 4.14 ERA. Despite his struggles, Gore’s advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s performed above average. However, projections suggest he may allow 2.4 earned runs and 4.8 hits today—numbers that could be problematic against a Braves lineup that, while average overall, features hitters capable of capitalizing on mistakes.

Opposing Gore will be Chris Sale, who is enjoying a resurgence this season with a 5-5 record and an impressive 2.52 ERA. Sale ranks as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB and projects to allow only 2.0 earned runs and 4.7 hits, making him a tough challenge for the Nationals’ offense, which ranks 23rd in MLB. The Nationals have struggled to generate power, hitting just 143 home runs this year, the 4th least in the league.

With a low game total of 7.0 runs and the Nationals as significant underdogs with a moneyline of +165, this matchup heavily favors the Braves. However, if the Nationals can harness their home-field advantage and exploit any fatigue from the Braves, they may just surprise the betting public.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because of his large platoon split, Chris Sale meets a tough challenge being matched up with 8 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Olson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 96.4-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect improved performance for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jacob Young has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .233 figure is considerably lower than his .268 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+12.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+10.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)
  Daylen Lile has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+18.00 Units / 180% ROI)