Review Betting Odds and Picks for Yankees vs Red Sox – Sunday, September 14, 2025

New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the New York Yankees on September 14, 2025, in a crucial American League East matchup that carries significant weight as both teams vie for playoff positioning. The Red Sox, currently at 81-68, are having an above-average season, while the Yankees sit at 83-65, enjoying a solid campaign. In their last meeting, the Yankees emerged victorious with a 5-3 win, adding pressure on the Red Sox to bounce back at Fenway Park.

Projected to start for the Red Sox is Garrett Crochet, who boasts an impressive 15-5 record and an elite ERA of 2.57 this season. Crochet is coming off a stellar performance where he pitched 7 innings, struck out 10 batters, and allowed no earned runs. His high strikeout rate (30.9 K%) and ability to induce ground balls (49 GB%) could give him an edge against a Yankees offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts but also possesses the league’s most powerful lineup, with 251 home runs this season.

On the other hand, Will Warren, slated to start for the Yankees, has an average record of 8-6 and a higher ERA of 4.22. While he pitched well in his last outing, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs, his projections indicate he may struggle against the Red Sox’s potent offense, which ranks 8th overall in MLB. The projections suggest that the Red Sox could capitalize on Warren’s tendency to allow hits, as he is expected to give up an average of 5.1 hits today.

Given the Red Sox’s strong offensive performance and Crochet’s elite status as a starting pitcher, they are positioned as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -155. Meanwhile, the Yankees, despite their powerful lineup, are seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +135. This game promises to be an exciting showdown as both teams look to solidify their playoff hopes.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Out of all SPs, Will Warren’s fastball spin rate of 2571 rpm ranks in the 99th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (+130)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order projects as the 2nd-best on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  Garrett Crochet has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 8.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Rob Refsnyder – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Rob Refsnyder has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 103.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 93-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-150)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 83 games (+14.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 games (+15.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)