Explore Player Props Preview for Rays vs Cubs – 9/14/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Chicago Cubs

On September 14, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Wrigley Field in an exciting interleague matchup. The Cubs are having a strong season with an 84-64 record, while the Rays sit at 73-75, having struggled to find consistent form. Both teams come into this game after a close battle yesterday, where the Cubs fell to the Rays by a narrow 5-4 score.

Starting for the Cubs will be Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down year with a 9-7 record and an impressive 3.21 ERA, although his 4.57 xFIP suggests some underlying issues. Imanaga has pitched 22 games this season and projects to strike out 6.1 batters while allowing 2.2 earned runs over an average of 5.6 innings. The Rays’ offense, which ranks 14th in MLB and has been known to be patient at the plate, faces a low-walk pitcher like Imanaga, potentially giving them an opportunity to capitalize on his strike-heavy approach.

On the mound for the Rays will be Adrian Houser, a right-hander with a 8-4 record and a 3.11 ERA. His peripherals also suggest he’s been fortunate, with a xFIP of 4.22. Houser projects to allow 2.4 earned runs in 5.3 innings, but his low strikeout rate of 18.8% may hinder his effectiveness against a Cubs lineup that strikes out the 6th least in the league.

The Cubs’ offense, ranked 10th overall, features a potent combination of power, sitting 8th in home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Rays have been more reliant on their speed, boasting the 1st best tally for stolen bases.

With a betting favorite status for the Cubs at -165, expectations lean towards Chicago, and they are projected to score around 3.90 runs today, compared to the Rays’ low implied total of 3.10 runs. Given the Cubs’ strong offensive metrics and home advantage, they appear ready to bounce back after yesterday’s loss.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 17.8 outs per GS this year on average, Adrian Houser falls in the 93rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Junior Caminero has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 96.5-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Shota Imanaga has relied on his slider 7.6% more often this year (15.3%) than he did last year (7.7%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Shaw has experienced some negative variance this year. His .292 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .320.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+15.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 129 games (+9.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)