Game Location for Royals vs Guardians – 9/11/25

Kansas City Royals

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight battle for respectability in the American League Central. The Guardians sit at 74-71, while the Royals are just a game behind at 74-72. Both teams have had average seasons, but they are looking to gain momentum as they continue their series, with the Guardians losing a nail-biter 4-3 in their last matchup.

On the mound, Cleveland is set to start Gavin Williams, who has had a strong season with a 10-5 record and a stellar ERA of 3.17. However, his 4.24 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good luck, which could mean a regression is on the horizon. Williams is known for his high walk rate (12.0 BB%), but he faces a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in the league for the fewest walks drawn, which might play to his advantage.

Stephen Kolek, projected to start for Kansas City, has struggled this season, holding a 5-5 record with a 3.88 ERA. Despite his solid performance in his last outing, where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 7 innings, his underlying metrics indicate he may also be due for a downturn. The projections suggest he will allow an average of 2.8 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a Guardians offense that, while ranked 29th in MLB, has seen some flashes of improvement.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, expectations are muted for offensive fireworks. However, the Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -135, reflecting a belief that they can capitalize on both Williams’s potential and Kolek’s vulnerabilities. As both teams seek to turn their seasons around, this matchup could prove pivotal in determining their respective trajectories.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+120)
  The Kansas City Royals outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Cleveland’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Jac Caglianone, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Gavin Williams has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• C.J. Kayfus – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Collin Kayfus has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 141 games (+10.69 Units / 6% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 136 games (+29.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• C.J. Kayfus – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  C.J. Kayfus has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.30 Units / 44% ROI)