Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Nationals vs Marlins Matchup 9/10/2025

Washington Nationals

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals on September 10, 2025, both teams find themselves well out of playoff contention, with records of 66-79 and 60-84, respectively. In their last meeting, the Nationals edged out the Marlins in a close contest, adding more tension to this already competitive series.

Eury Perez is slated to start for Miami, bringing a solid all-around profile to the mound. While his 4.66 ERA is average, his 3.41 xERA shows he has been unfortunate this season and could deliver better results going forward. Projection systems rank him as the 74th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his potential to outperform expectations against a struggling Nationals lineup that ranks 23rd overall this season. The Nationals have a lackluster offensive output, sitting 25th in home runs and relying heavily on their top hitter for production.

Jake Irvin, on the other hand, is expected to start for Washington. He has struggled significantly, with a 5.71 ERA this season, and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league. Irvin’s low strikeout rate of 15.0% poses a challenge against a Marlins offense that has made substantial strides in limiting strikeouts, ranking 5th in the league in this category.

With both starters facing opposing lineups that have their issues, the Marlins hold an implied team total of 4.70 runs. As betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, the Marlins will look to capitalize on the mismatch between Perez’s potential and Irvin’s struggles. Despite both teams’ poor overall seasons, today’s game presents a unique opportunity for Miami to find a rhythm in front of their home crowd at LoanDepot Park.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.9% more often this season (47.6%) than he did last season (41.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  James Wood has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jorge Alfaro, James Wood, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Eury Perez’s 2680-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 100th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jakob Marsee has been lucky this year, posting a .406 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .097 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+12.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 away games (+13.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 39% ROI)