See the Mariners vs Braves Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Saturday September 6th, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves (64-77) will look to turn around their disappointing season when they host the Seattle Mariners (73-68) at Truist Park on September 6, 2025. After a tough loss yesterday, the Braves are facing an uphill battle against a Mariners team that has performed well lately. The Braves still possess a solid offense, ranked 15th in MLB, but they have struggled in various aspects, including a dismal 27th ranking in stolen bases.

Projected starting pitcher Hurston Waldrep is having an interesting season. While he boasts an impressive 4-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.01, advanced metrics suggest he may be overperforming, as his xFIP stands at 3.55, indicating he could face difficulties moving forward. Waldrep’s inability to go deep into games, projecting an average of just 4.9 innings, poses a challenge for the Braves, especially with their average bullpen ranked 11th in MLB.

On the other side, the Mariners will send Bryce Miller to the mound. Miller, while considered a below-average pitcher with a 5.71 ERA, has the potential to perform better due to a favorable strikeout-to-walk ratio and a projected improvement according to the stats. Miller’s high walk percentage may give the Braves a chance to exploit his control issues, particularly since they rank as the 3rd most patient offense in the league.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an expectation for moderate scoring. The Braves enter as -140 favorites, with an implied team total of 4.54 runs. If the Braves can capitalize on Miller’s walks and improve their offensive output, they might just find a way to secure a much-needed victory.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bryce Miller is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Cal Raleigh has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Seattle Mariners bats collectively have been one of the best in the majors this year (7th-) when assessing their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Hurston Waldrep – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Hurston Waldrep has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Harris II’s true offensive ability to be a .325, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 deviation between that mark and his actual .287 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 131 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+15.60 Units / 195% ROI)