Game Forecast: Astros vs Rangers Head-to-Head Analysis Friday September 5th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 5, 2025, both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing outings in their last games. The Rangers fell to the Astros 2-0, while the Astros were handed a more significant defeat, losing 8-4 to their opponents. This matchup is crucial, as both teams are vying for position in the American League West, with the Astros currently holding a stronger record at 77-64 compared to the Rangers’ 72-69.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, boasting a solid 3.24 ERA and a respectable 11-7 win/loss record this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 3.84, indicating potential regression. Kelly’s average outing this season has him projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, making him a favorable option against a Houston lineup that has been average overall.

On the other side, Colton Gordon, who has struggled with a 5.64 ERA, takes the hill for the Astros. His recent performances have not inspired confidence, especially after he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings during his last start. While Gordon’s xFIP of 4.16 suggests he might improve, his below-average strikeout rate of 4.2 bodes ill against the Rangers’ batters.

The Rangers’ offense ranks 26th in MLB, struggling to find consistency, but they do have a decent home run output, ranking 17th. Meanwhile, the Astros’ offense is more balanced, sitting at 13th overall, with a strong batting average of .270. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. Betting markets have the Rangers favored at -125, reflecting their slight edge as they look to capitalize on the Astros’ recent struggles.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Colton Gordon has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Yordan Alvarez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 101.3-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston’s 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #29 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Merrill Kelly’s change-up rate has risen by 5.2% from last year to this one (21% to 26.2%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Burger’s true offensive ability to be a .344, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .044 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .300 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  In today’s game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.7% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+10.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 129 games (+14.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)
  Kyle Higashioka has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+9.80 Units / 245% ROI)