Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Mariners vs Braves – Friday, September 05, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on September 5, 2025, they find themselves struggling this season with a record of 63-77. Despite their underwhelming performance, the Braves are slight betting favorites with a moneyline of -140. In contrast, the Mariners are enjoying an above-average season at 73-67, highlighted by their power-hitting lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 200 home runs.

In their last outing, the Braves’ ace, Chris Sale, will take the mound, bringing an impressive ERA of 2.45, although his xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky this season. Sale projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing about 2.2 earned runs while striking out 7.7 batters—solid numbers that could give him an edge against a high-strikeout Mariners offense. Moreover, Sale’s capability to keep the strikeouts high aligns well with the Mariners’ tendency to swing and miss, making this matchup intriguing for fans and bettors alike.

Logan Gilbert, the Mariners’ starter, has a respectable ERA of 3.73 but is projected to face a Braves offense that, while averaging in the middle tier for runs, struggles with flyballs. Gilbert’s low walk rate of 6.2% may help him neutralize the Braves’ patient approach, potentially giving the Mariners an advantage.

The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations of a pitcher’s duel. With the Braves needing a win to boost their morale and the Mariners looking to solidify their playoff positioning, this game has significant implications for both teams.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has utilized his secondary pitches 5.3% less often this season (62.4%) than he did last season (67.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  In terms of his home runs, Eugenio Suarez has had some very good luck this year. His 44.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.4% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Chris Sale was rolling in his last game started and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Atlanta Braves with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)