Get Expert Player Predictions for Phillies vs Marlins – September 05, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 5, 2025, they face a significant challenge in this National League East matchup. The Marlins have had a rough season, currently holding a record of 65-75, while the Phillies sit comfortably at 81-59, showcasing their strength. Miami’s last outing was less than ideal, as they struggled against their opponents, contributing to their below-average performance this year.

On the mound, the Marlins are set to start Valente Bellozo, who has had a rocky season with a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 3.91. Despite a decent ERA, advanced metrics suggest he has been lucky, as his xFIP of 5.34 indicates he may regress. Bellozo projects to pitch about 3.7 innings today, allowing roughly 2.2 earned runs and striking out 2.7 batters, numbers that highlight his struggles. In contrast, Cristopher Sanchez, the Phillies’ ace, boasts an impressive 11-5 record and an excellent ERA of 2.66. Sanchez’s ability to pitch deep into games—an average of 6.0 innings—coupled with the Marlins’ low strikeout rate could give the Phillies an edge.

Offensively, the Marlins rank just 21st in MLB, while the Phillies are among the league’s elite, ranking 6th. With the Marlins’ struggles against Sanchez’s high-groundball tendencies, it will be critical for them to capitalize on any opportunities. Betting odds reflect the disparity, with Miami listed as a massive underdog at +225, suggesting an implied team total of just 3.08 runs. Conversely, the Phillies are favored at -265, with an implied total of 4.92 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Cristopher Sanchez has tallied 18.8 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 97th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Max Kepler’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 90.8-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 83.3-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Valente Bellozo has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 8.8% more often this season (71.5%) than he did last year (62.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Typically, hitters like Otto Lopez who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Cristopher Sanchez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games at home (+12.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+18.61 Units / 15% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)