Player Props Analysis for Blue Jays vs Yankees – Friday September 5th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 5, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the American League East. The Yankees, currently at 78-62, are looking to gain ground on the 81-59 Blue Jays, who are enjoying a strong season. This matchup is particularly significant, as it marks the first game of a series between these two rivals, adding an extra layer of intensity to the contest.

In their last outings, the Yankees secured an 8-4 victory, while the Blue Jays triumphed in a high-scoring affair, winning 13-9. This sets the stage for an exciting clash, especially with both teams boasting potent offenses. The Yankees rank 1st in MLB in home runs, hitting an impressive 241 this season, while the Blue Jays are right behind them at 2nd overall, showcasing their offensive firepower as well.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Cam Schlitter, who has been solid this year with a 2.61 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 69th among starting pitchers. However, he faces a Blue Jays lineup that has the 2nd fewest strikeouts in MLB, which could neutralize Schlitter’s high strikeout rate. Conversely, Kevin Gausman is set to take the hill for Toronto. Despite his 3.75 ERA, Gausman has struggled with a 10-10 record this season, and he will need to navigate a Yankees offense that excels at drawing walks.

With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, the betting markets see this as a close contest, reflected in the Yankees’ moneyline of -120 and the Blue Jays at +100. Given the Yankees’ offensive capabilities and the projections favoring their chances, they may have the edge in this pivotal matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Kevin Gausman’s high usage rate of his fastball (54.4% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Daulton Varsho has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98-mph average to last year’s 91.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Cameron Schlittler’s 97.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 98th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Ben Rice has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .352 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .413 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Yankees bats as a unit place in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 11.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 61 games (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 86 games (+24.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-570)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 93% ROI)