Betting Odds and Picks for Braves vs Cubs – 9/03/25

Atlanta Braves

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on September 3, 2025, the stakes are high for the Cubs, who currently sit at 80-59, firmly in the playoff race. With the Cubs enjoying a strong season and their offense ranked 9th in MLB, they look to build momentum after winning their last matchup against the Braves 4-3. Conversely, the Braves, at 62-77, have struggled all season and are not in contention for the playoffs.

Cade Horton is set to take the mound for the Cubs. He comes off a solid performance in his last start on August 29, when he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, and 6 hits. Despite being ranked 109th among starting pitchers in MLB, his impressive 2.92 ERA indicates he has had a good year, although his 4.37 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. The projections indicate he will pitch around 4.7 innings today, with an average of 2.3 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, Braves’ Bryce Elder has been having a rough season, holding a 5.85 ERA and ranking among the worst pitchers in the league. However, Elder did show flashes of brilliance in his last start, going 7 innings with only 1 earned run against the competition. He projects to pitch about 5.2 innings today but is expected to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs.

The Cubs will be looking to capitalize on their offensive advantages against a struggling Braves pitching staff. With an implied team total of 4.35 runs, they are favored to win this matchup. As the two teams clash, the Cubs will aim to keep their winning momentum rolling, while the Braves continue to seek consistency amid a challenging season.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Over his last 3 GS, Bryce Elder has suffered a substantial fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2082 rpm over the entire season to 2015 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Drake Baldwin has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Compared to league average, Cade Horton has been granted a below-average leash this year, throwing an -12.0 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball batters like Seiya Suzuki are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryce Elder.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago grades out as the #1 group of hitters in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.7% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+15.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)