Game Location for Mariners vs Guardians – 8/30/25

Seattle Mariners

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Cleveland Guardians

On August 30, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Progressive Field in what is the second game of this series. The Guardians currently sit at 67-66, holding an average record, while the Mariners are in better shape at 72-63, showcasing an above-average season. In their previous matchup, the Guardians edged out the Mariners with a tight 5-4 victory, adding some extra excitement to this ongoing series.

Projected to start for the Guardians is Gavin Williams, who has had a decent year with an 8-5 record and a strong ERA of 3.36. However, advanced statistics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP is higher at 4.25, hinting at potential struggles ahead. Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert, taking the mound for the Mariners, has been one of the league’s standout pitchers, ranked 18th overall with a solid ERA of 3.69. His recent performance was stellar, as he pitched well in his last outing, going six innings and allowing just one earned run while racking up 13 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Guardians have struggled, ranking 30th in MLB in batting average and overall offensive production. In stark contrast, the Mariners boast the 12th best offense and lead the league in home runs, giving them a powerful edge in this matchup.

Despite the Guardians being underdogs with a moneyline of +120, the projections indicate that their performance could exceed expectations given that they have just defeated a solid opponent. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup could be closer than the stats suggest. Bettors should keep an eye on the Guardians’ ability to capitalize on any mistakes from Gilbert, possibly leading to another thrilling contest.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Logan Gilbert’s 94.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.8-mph decline from last year’s 96.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last year’s 94.9-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.4% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Gavin Williams has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.2 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.319) may lead us to conclude that Bo Naylor has had some very poor luck this year with his .275 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Collin Kayfus, David Fry, Nolan Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 125 games (+9.64 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 127 games (+12.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)