Official Lineup for Rays vs Nationals – 8/30/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 30, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing late in the season. The Nationals, with a record of 53-81, are having a dismal campaign and currently rank 24th in MLB offensively. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 65-69, an average record that leaves them in the middle of the pack. In their last matchup, Tampa Bay topped Washington 4-1, a continuation of the Nationals’ recent difficulties.

Projected starters for the game are Jake Irvin for Washington and Ryan Pepiot for Tampa Bay. Irvin’s recent performance has been lackluster; he has an 8-9 record with a troubling ERA of 5.40 over 27 starts. His last outing on August 24 was abbreviated, as he could only manage 2 innings, yielding 3 earned runs, 6 hits, and 2 walks. In contrast, Pepiot has been more reliable, holding a 9-10 record and a solid ERA of 3.82. Last week, he delivered a strong outing, pitching 5 shutout innings while allowing just 1 hit.

The Nationals’ offense has struggled to generate power this season, ranking 28th in home runs, which is a stark disadvantage against Pepiot, who tends to induce fly balls. The projections suggest that Pepiot should have an edge, especially considering the Nationals’ poor rankings, including a 20th place in batting average.

Despite the odds favoring the Rays, Washington’s star players are attempting to make a push as the season winds down. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the matchup could swing either way, depending on how effectively both pitchers can command the game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Recording 17 outs per GS this year on average, Ryan Pepiot places him the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Bob Seymour – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Robert Seymour has big-time HR ability (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin struggles to strike batters out (12th percentile K%) — great news for Seymour.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Jake Irvin’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (46.9% vs. 41.7% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  James Wood has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Adams, James Wood, Paul DeJong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+15.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 109 games (+13.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+285/-410)
  Junior Caminero has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+7.75 Units / 77% ROI)