Read the Mariners vs Guardians Prediction and Game Breakdown – August 29th, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Seattle Mariners at Progressive Field on August 29, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the American League. The Guardians, with a record of 66-66, are having an average season. In contrast, the Mariners sit at 72-62, enjoying an above-average campaign. This matchup marks the first game of the series, adding an extra layer of excitement.

In their previous outing, the Mariners showcased their offensive prowess, defeating the Guardians decisively. The Mariners’ offense ranks 12th in MLB, bolstered by their impressive 3rd ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, the Guardians’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking dead last at 30th, both in overall performance and batting average. This stark contrast in offensive capabilities could play a crucial role in today’s game.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start Logan Allen, who has had a tumultuous season with a 7-10 record and an ERA of 4.35. The projections suggest he may allow 2.9 earned runs today, which is not ideal. Conversely, the Mariners will counter with George Kirby, who has been solid with an 8-6 record and an ERA of 4.05. Kirby’s peripherals indicate he might be due for better performance, and he projects to allow just 2.3 earned runs today.

With Logan Allen’s low strikeout rate and the Mariners’ high strikeout offense, this matchup could favor the Mariners. Despite the Guardians being the underdogs today with a moneyline of +135, the projections suggest they may find it tough against a potent Mariners lineup. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tight contest, but the Guardians’ offensive struggles may ultimately hinder their chances.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  George Kirby has averaged 92.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Logan Allen has added a sinker to his arsenal this season and has used it 12.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Brayan Rocchio has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph dropping to 81.7-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Jones, Collin Kayfus, Gabriel Arias).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+13.04 Units / 12% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 away games (+12.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 33% ROI)