Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Tigers vs Athletics Match Preview – August 26, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics host the Detroit Tigers at Sutter Health Park on August 26, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Tigers, boasting a strong record of 78-55, are having a great season compared to the Athletics, who sit at 61-72 and are struggling to find consistency. In their last game, the Tigers bested the Athletics, and today marks the second game of their series.

Oakland’s pitching staff faces a tough challenge today. Osvaldo Bido is projected to start, and while he has shown flashes of potential, his numbers tell a different story. Bido’s Win/Loss record is 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA, positioning him as one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, ranked 293rd out of approximately 350. His projections suggest he will pitch an average of just 3.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out only 3.2 batters. Facing him is Charlie Morton, who, despite not having the best record at 9-10 and an ERA of 5.09, is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and strike out 5.1 batters. Morton’s advanced metrics indicate he may be due for a turnaround.

Both offenses present a mixed bag of talent. Oakland ranks 7th in MLB in team batting average and home runs, showcasing an ability to score runs, while Detroit falls at 12th in batting average and 9th in home runs. However, the Tigers have struggled with steals, ranking dead last in that category, which could limit their scoring potential.

With both teams underperforming relative to their expectations, this game is pivotal for the Athletics as they seek to turn their season around. The projections suggest that while the Athletics might not be favored today, their chances are better than the odds indicate, making them a compelling underdog.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Charlie Morton has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Javier Baez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 5.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Osvaldo Bido – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Osvaldo Bido’s high usage rate of his fastball (53.9% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Darell Hernaiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Darell Hernaiz’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 84.7-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81.3-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Athletics have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nicholas Kurtz, Zack Gelof, Colby Thomas).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 73 of their last 131 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+125/-160)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.70 Units / 124% ROI)