Score Updates for Rangers vs Cardinals – 7/29/24

Texas Rangers

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium on July 29, 2024, this Interleague matchup kicks off a new series. Both teams are looking to gain some momentum in what has been a rather underwhelming season for both. The Cardinals sit at 54-51, an average record, while the Rangers are 51-55, struggling to stay afloat this season.

The Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante, a right-handed pitcher, has been relatively average this season with a 4-4 Win/Loss record and a 3.92 ERA###101. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Pallante ranks as the #92 starting pitcher out of around 350, solidifying his status as an average performer. Today’s projections expect him to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 3.2 batters and allowing 5.8 hits and 1.8 walks. These numbers indicate some potential struggles against a Rangers lineup.

On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi will start for the Rangers. Eovaldi, also a right-handed pitcher, has been more consistent with a 7-4 Win/Loss record and a strong 3.31 ERA###102. He ranks #60 among starting pitchers, making him a solid option on the mound. THE BAT X projects Eovaldi to pitch about 5.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, recording 5.2 strikeouts, while conceding 5.8 hits and 1.7 walks. Despite these average projections, Eovaldi’s pedigree offers some optimism for Rangers fans.

Offensively, both teams face challenges. The Cardinals’ offense ranks 18th in overall talent but struggles with power, ranking 22nd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Rangers rank 21st in offense and 17th in home runs, showcasing slightly better power but still not enough to be a significant threat.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Cardinals rank #6, which significantly outperforms their year-to-date performance, providing a reliable safety net for Pallante. Meanwhile, the Rangers’ bullpen is more middling, ranked #16, aligning well with their season struggles.

Highlighted by hot streaks, Pedro Pages of the Cardinals boasts a .462 batting average and 1.115 OPS over the last week. For the Rangers, Robbie Grossman has been reliable, hitting .438 with a 1.125 OPS and a homer in his last 5 games. These individual performances add an intriguing dynamic to this matchup.

With betting markets giving a slight edge to the Rangers (-115), expect a closely contested game with a total of 8.5 runs projected. It’s set to be a competitive start to this series, with both teams eager to reverse their fortunes.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Nathan Eovaldi’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (63.3% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In the past 7 days, Jonah Heim’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Andre Pallante was in good form in his last game started and allowed 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Matt Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Carpenter has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 78 games (+9.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+145/-185)
  Nathan Eovaldi has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.95 Units / 70% ROI)