Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Royals – Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on July 30, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in what has been a challenging season. The Royals sit at 53-55, while the Braves are struggling at 45-61. After a hard-fought victory against Atlanta yesterday, where the Royals won 9-6, Kansas City is hoping to build on this momentum.

On the mound, the Royals will turn to Angel Zerpa, who has shown promise despite his limited starts this season. With a ERA of 3.77, Zerpa ranks as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has been above average in his limited appearances. However, he is projected to pitch only 1.1 innings today, which raises concerns about his overall impact. Zerpa’s ability to limit earned runs is a plus, as he projects to allow just 0.6 earned runs on average.

On the other side, the Braves are sending Joey Wentz to the mound. Wentz has had a rough season with a 5.76 ERA, placing him among the worst pitchers in MLB. His recent outing wasn’t terrible, as he allowed 3 earned runs over 4 innings, but his high walk rate (11.2 BB%) could be a liability against a Royals offense that struggles to capitalize on control issues.

Offensively, the Royals rank 25th in MLB, and their best hitter is having a solid week with a .455 batting average and a 1.520 OPS. Meanwhile, the Braves have a slightly better offensive ranking at 19th, but their own best hitter has been on fire, boasting a .500 batting average recently.

With the Royals’ strong showing in their last game and the projections slightly favoring their chances today, they could very well take another step forward in this matchup. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. Betting markets have the Royals at -130, suggesting a close game ahead.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Joey Wentz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Joey Wentz is expected to ring up an average of 3.9 strikeouts in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Michael Harris II is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Angel Zerpa – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)
  The Atlanta Braves have 7 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Angel Zerpa in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Adam Frazier’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 85.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 83-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 97 games (+28.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1800)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+12.50 Units / 250% ROI)