Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Rays vs Yankees Match – Monday, July 28, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 28, 2025, this American League East matchup brings with it considerable intrigue. The Yankees, boasting a solid 57-48 record, aim to capitalize on their impressive offensive capabilities, currently ranked 1st in MLB. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay sits at an even 53-53, showing average results this season.

In their most recent outing, the Yankees continued their strong play but will look to improve after a complete game shutout performance from their starting pitcher. Cam Schlitter, who has started just 2 games this year with a 1-0 record and a 4.35 ERA, will take the mound for New York. Despite holding the #116 spot in Power Rankings—indicating average performance—his advanced projections suggest he has been unlucky and may perform better than his numbers indicate.

Countering Schlitter is Drew Rasmussen, a standout for Tampa Bay, who comes with a stellar 2.93 ERA and a 7-5 record from 18 starts. Ranked 21st among MLB starters, Rasmussen’s high groundball percentage (52%) could play to his advantage against a Yankees offense that specializes in power, with 168 home runs this year.

In terms of bullpen performance, the Yankees rank 23rd while the Rays have a much more favorable 2nd ranking, indicating a potential edge for Tampa Bay late in the game. Bettors should note that current moneylines reflect a closely contested matchup, with the Yankees at -120 and the Rays at +100.

With the Yankees enjoying strong offensive support and an advantage in recent performance, they hold a slightly higher implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to Tampa Bay’s 4.15. The dynamics of this game may hinge on whether Schlitter can outlast Rasmussen, who is expected to limit walks and could pose challenges for New York’s patient hitters. Overall, it promises to be a thrilling contest.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.2% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  In his previous GS, Cameron Schlittler was on point and posted 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In today’s matchup, Anthony Volpe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+12.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 32% ROI)