Colorado Rockies
Baltimore Orioles
(-105/-115)-245
The Baltimore Orioles and Colorado Rockies face off in the second game of their series on July 26, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are looking to build on a victory in yesterday’s matchup, while the Rockies continue to struggle this season, currently sitting at a dismal 27-76.
Projected starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has been a bright spot for the Orioles amid an overall disappointing season. With a Win/Loss record of 3-1 and an impressive ERA of 1.74, Rogers seems poised to handle the Rockies’ struggling lineup, which ranks 25th in the league in team batting average. However, the advanced stats suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate, as his 3.71 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance moving forward.
On the other side, Antonio Senzatela has had a tough go of it for the Rockies, posting a 4-13 record with a troubling ERA of 6.41. He projects to pitch just 4.9 innings today, which is worrying for a Rockies team that also ranks poorly in offense. Senzatela’s luck doesn’t seem to be turning, as his projections indicate he might perform similarly to his historical struggles.
The Orioles’ offense, ranked 22nd in the league, is better than its record indicates, especially with a current team total projected at a high 5.79 runs. This game total of 9.5 runs reflects a favorable matchup for the Orioles, who are substantial betting favorites with a moneyline of -255, suggesting a respectful chance for a solid offensive performance against Senzatela.
With both teams in the bottom tier of the Power Rankings, this matchup presents an opportunity for Baltimore to capitalize on Colorado’s shortcomings as they seek to improve their season.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Out of all SPs, Antonio Senzatela’s fastball spin rate of 2219 rpm ranks in the 17th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Mickey Moniak will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Baltimore Orioles has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Hunter Goodman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Recording 17.7 outs per start this year on average, Trevor Rogers falls in the 87th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Ramon Laureano has been lucky this year, notching a .359 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .038 deviation.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- The Baltimore Orioles have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Jacob Stallings, Tyler O’Neill, Ramon Laureano).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+13.12 Units / 12% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+10.70 Units / 119% ROI)