Game Highlights for D-Backs vs Pirates – July 26, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On July 26, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at PNC Park for the second game of their series. The Pirates enter this matchup struggling significantly, sitting at 42-62 and ranking 30th in MLB offensively. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, with a record of 51-53, have shown some promise this season, particularly with their offense ranked 2nd in the league.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks outperformed expectations, demonstrating their potential with a strong offensive showing. The Pirates will send Andrew Heaney to the mound, who has had a rough season with a 4-9 record and a 5.03 ERA, making him one of the lowest-ranked pitchers at #298 in MLB. Heaney’s projections indicate he will struggle again, averaging 5.0 innings with 3.0 earned runs allowed, and his tendency to give up 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks per outing raises concerns.

On the flip side, the Diamondbacks will start Merrill Kelly, who has been solid this season, boasting a 9-5 record and an impressive 3.32 ERA, ranking him 47th among pitchers. While his xERA suggests he might regress, his current form is strong enough to give the Diamondbacks an edge. Kelly projects to pitch 5.4 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed, which should keep the Pirates’ struggling offense at bay.

The betting markets reflect the close nature of this contest, with the Pirates at +115 and an implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Diamondbacks sit at -135 with a higher implied total of 4.50 runs. Given the Pirates’ offensive woes and Heaney’s poor performance metrics, this matchup heavily favors Arizona’s chances to capitalize on their superior lineup and Kelly’s reliability on the mound.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-145)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Eugenio Suarez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Andrew Heaney is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been lucky this year, posting a .285 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .281 — a .004 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 70 games (+18.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 90 games (+14.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 49% ROI)