Game Breakdown: Rockies vs Reds Head-to-Head Insights 7/12/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Colorado Rockies on July 12, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are navigating their seasons quite differently; the Reds are hovering around .500 at 48-47, while the Rockies are struggling significantly with a dismal record of 22-72. Additionally, the Reds may be riding some momentum after a recent victory, although specific details about their previous game were not provided.

In terms of pitching, Brady Singer is slated to take the mound for the Reds. His season has been marked by a 7-7 record and an average ERA of 4.32 over 18 starts. Though he ranks as the 154th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, the projections suggest he’ll bring a steady performance today, averaging 5.8 innings with projections of allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters.

Opposing him will be Bradley Blalock for the Rockies. The young right-hander has had a nightmarish start to his season, posting a 0-2 record with an alarming ERA of 12.94 over just three starts. Despite this, his xFIP of 5.53 indicates that he may have been somewhat unlucky, suggesting a potential for improvement. However, with projections showing he will struggle to pitch more than 4.4 innings while allowing 3.4 earned runs, his matchup against the Reds’ offense could prove challenging.

When looking at offensive capabilities, the Reds rank 15th in MLB overall, while the Rockies sit at a troubling 27th. The Reds’ ability to capitalize on Blalock’s weaknesses could be a deciding factor, especially given that their best hitter has been performing at a high level recently. The game total is set at a high 10.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive fireworks, particularly from the home side. Given the Reds’ stronger overall performance metrics, they are positioned as significant favorites in this one.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+220)
  Bradley Blalock is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+305/-440)
  Placing in the 97th percentile for base-stealing, Tyler Freeman has paced 40.6 swipes per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Brady Singer’s slider percentage has fallen by 9.1% from last year to this one (45.5% to 36.4%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bradley Blalock.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-150/+120)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 24% ROI)