Pittsburgh Pirates
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-140
The Minnesota Twins will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Target Field on July 12, 2025, in the second game of this interleague series. After a closely contested matchup yesterday, where the Twins edged out the Pirates 2-1, both teams will be looking to capitalize on the momentum as they head into this pivotal game.
Currently, the Twins sit at a mediocre 46-48 this season, while the Pirates are struggling with a 38-57 record. Despite their average standing, the Twins are expected to have the advantage today with Cole Sands on the mound, who aims to build off his last abbreviated outing where he threw 1 inning with no earned runs. However, Sands’s projections indicate challenges, with expectations of only 1.0 innings pitched and an average of 0.5 earned runs allowed, alongside poor projections for hits and walks allowed.
On the other side, Michael Burrows takes the hill for the Pirates. While he has shown flashes of promise with a solid ERA of 3.63, his xFIP of 4.52 suggests that he may have been fortunate this season. Burrows is projected to give up an average of 2.5 earned runs and allow 4.4 hits over 4.4 innings today, making this a tough assignment against a Twins team that, despite a lackluster offense, still ranks 12th in MLB for home runs.
Betting lines favor the Twins with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs. The projections and recent performance suggest that the Twins, despite their ups and downs this season, hold the advantage in this matchup as they strive to improve their standing.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+120)Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)Grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Spencer Horwitz has paced 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year.Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” today, Cole Sands may not pitch more than a couple innings consider he will be treated as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Rating 2nd-highest in the league this year, Minnesota Twins batters as a group have posted a 16.8° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable stat to study power skills).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+17.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)