Cubs vs Yankees Prediction and Game Breakdown – Saturday July 12, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

New York Yankees

On July 12, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Chicago Cubs for an exciting interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. These two teams faced off just yesterday, with the Yankees dominating the Cubs with a resounding 11-0 victory. While the Yankees are currently 53-41, good enough for contention in the postseason, the Cubs hold a slightly better record at 55-39, showcasing their strong season.

The Yankees are projected to start Max Fried, who, with an impressive 11-2 record and a stellar 2.27 ERA, ranks as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB this season. His recent performance has been steady, though his peripherals suggest some regression may be on the horizon. Fried’s high groundball rate of 52% should serve him well against a powerful Cubs offense that has smashed 139 home runs this season, ranking 3rd overall.

Facing Fried is the Cubs’ Matthew Boyd, who comes in with a solid 9-3 record and a 2.52 ERA, ranking 37th among MLB starters. However, Boyd’s underlying metrics indicate potential struggles ahead, particularly against a Yankees offense that is firing on all cylinders. New York’s lineup leads the league in both home runs and overall offensive rankings—an ominous sign for Boyd and the Cubs’ chances.

As the Yankees enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, the projections have them slated for an implied total of 4.42 runs. Given their recent performance, the Yankees are positioned to capitalize on Boyd’s weaknesses. Expect a competitive game, but the Yankees have the edge in both pitching and offensive firepower heading into this contest.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+140)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (52% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Giancarlo Stanton has performed at a clip of 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+8.82 Units / 10% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 86 games (+8.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)