Read the Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 9th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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St. Louis Cardinals

On July 9, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will look to build on their recent success against the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals triumphed over the Nationals in their last matchup, winning 4-2, and have been showcasing an above-average season with a record of 49-43. Meanwhile, the Nationals continue to struggle, sitting at 37-54, indicating a tough year for the team.

Pitching for the Cardinals, Andre Pallante has been solid, currently ranked as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Pallante’s recent performance was impressive, highlighted by a complete game shutout in his last start on July 1, 2025, where he tossed 7 innings with zero earned runs. While Pallante has a Win-Loss record of 5-4 this season and an ERA of 4.10, projections suggest he can expect an average outing today, averaging 5.9 innings pitched with 2.4 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore, who is having a challenging season with a 3-8 record and a great ERA of 3.11, ranking him 43rd among MLB pitchers. Although Gore has also pitched well recently—allowing only 2 earned runs in his last start on July 2—he faces a tough challenge against the Cardinals’ offense, which ranks as the 14th best in MLB.

Considering the Cardinals’ solid pitching and a recent winning streak, their -135 moneyline suggests they’re favored to win. With an implied team total of 3.97 runs, the Cardinals are positioned as the likely victors against a struggling Nationals lineup that has shown vulnerability this season. Expect a competitive matchup as these two teams clash again in this intriguing series.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  With a .197 wOBA over the past 14 days, Riley Adams has been struggling at the plate.
  Explain: Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals grades them out as the #23 club in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 8.2% more often this year (39.1%) than he did last year (30.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Garrett Hampson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Checking in at the 2nd percentile, Garrett Hampson has put up a .111 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season.
  Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under Total Bases
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.94 Units / 12% ROI)
• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Andre Pallante has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 72% ROI)