Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Pirates vs Royals – July 09, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Kansas City Royals

On July 9, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the third game of this Interleague matchup. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Royals currently sitting at 45-48, while the Pirates hold a disappointing 38-55 record. The Royals are projected to start Kris Bubic, who is having a solid year with a 7-6 record and an impressive 2.36 ERA, making him the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Pirates will counter with Bailey Falter, whose performance has been subpar, ranking among the worst pitchers in the league.

In their last outing, the Royals found themselves on the losing side, but Bubic’s consistent performance suggests he could turn things around. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing only 2.2 earned runs, and his ability to strike out 6.3 batters per game could be key against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in the league.

The Pirates, on the other hand, are facing a tough challenge. Falter is expected to pitch approximately 5.1 innings but projects to allow 2.9 earned runs and only strikes out 3.0 batters on average. With a high-flyball tendency and a low strikeout rate, he might struggle against a Royals lineup that, despite ranking 26th in overall offense, has shown flashes of improvement.

Betting odds have the Royals as significant favorites with a moneyline of -190, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.89 runs compared to the Pirates’ 3.61. With Bubic’s strong track record and the Pirates’ offensive woes, Kansas City appears poised to capitalize on this matchup and secure a vital win.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme groundball bats like Tommy Pham tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Kris Bubic.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  Given the 1.46 difference between Kris Bubic’s 2.36 ERA and his 3.82 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and should see worse results in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Salvador Perez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 91 games (+31.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 45 away games (+18.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Alexander Canario – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Alexander Canario has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.95 Units / 74% ROI)