Player Props for Phillies vs Giants – Monday July 07, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 7, 2025, both teams are looking to build on their recent successes. The Giants, with a record of 49-42, are having an above-average season, while the Phillies sit at 53-37, enjoying a great season. In their last outings, the Giants secured a 6-2 victory, while the Phillies triumphed with a 3-1 win, showcasing their ability to compete in tight games.

The matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Landen Roupp for the Giants and Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies. Roupp, ranked 111th among MLB starting pitchers, has had a solid year with a 3.48 ERA but is projected to struggle today. He averages only 5.0 innings pitched and has a concerning tendency to issue walks, which could be problematic against a Phillies lineup that draws walks at the 6th highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, Sanchez, an elite pitcher ranked 10th, boasts an impressive 2.68 ERA and pitched exceptionally in his last start, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run.

Offensively, the Giants rank 24th in MLB, struggling particularly in home runs and batting average. In contrast, the Phillies are 9th overall, with a strong batting average of .265 and a powerful presence from their best hitter, who has 27 home runs this season. The projections suggest the Giants will only manage about 3.49 runs today, which is a low team total, while the Phillies are projected to score around 4.01 runs.

With the Giants’ bullpen rated 9th in MLB, they might keep the game competitive, but it will largely depend on Roupp’s performance against a potent Phillies offense. Given the current odds and team evaluations, this game could tilt in favor of Philadelphia as they aim to capitalize on the Giants’ weaknesses.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have 7 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kyle Schwarber has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 40.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 31.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Landen Roupp was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and posted 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 85 games (+11.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.95 Units / 18% ROI)