Explore the Game Breakdown: Reds vs Phillies Team Stats and Insights – 7/06/2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Philadelphia Phillies

On July 6, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park for the third game of their series. The Phillies, currently standing at 52-37, are enjoying a strong season and are looking to capitalize on their recent momentum after a convincing 5-1 victory against the Reds yesterday. Meanwhile, the Reds, with a record of 46-43, have been performing above average but are coming off a tough loss.

Zack Wheeler, projected to start for the Phillies, is in elite form, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This season, Wheeler has a solid 8-3 record and an impressive 2.27 ERA over 17 starts. His last outing was particularly noteworthy, as he went eight innings without allowing a run, striking out 10 batters. Wheeler projects to pitch around 5.9 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, and he’s likely to find success against a Reds lineup that ranks 14th in MLB offense.

Chase Burns, on the other hand, will take the mound for Cincinnati. His 0-1 record and a dismal 13.50 ERA over just two starts indicate struggles that may continue today. Despite a favorable xFIP of 3.43, Burns faces a daunting challenge against a Phillies offense that ranks 9th overall and 6th in batting average.

The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for strong offensive output from Philadelphia, whose implied team total stands at an impressive 5.35 runs. With the Reds listed as significant underdogs, the betting favor lies heavily with the Phillies, making this matchup one to watch for bettors looking to capitalize on Wheeler’s elite skills against a struggling Reds pitcher.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  In his previous GS, Chase Burns was in good form and put up 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Tyler Stephenson has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 12.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 8.1 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Bryson Stott has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 84.8-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies hitters as a unit rank among the best in the majors this year (6th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-280)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 85 games (+12.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+190)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)