Player Stats for Tigers vs Guardians – July 5th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians face off against the Detroit Tigers on July 5, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams in this American League Central matchup. The Guardians, struggling this season with a record of 40-46, are looking to turn things around against the Tigers, who boast an impressive 55-34 record. In their previous game, the Tigers edged out the Guardians, adding to Cleveland’s woes.

Cleveland is projected to start Logan Allen, a left-handed pitcher whose season has been underwhelming. With a 5-6 record and a 4.27 ERA, Allen ranks as the 262nd best starting pitcher in MLB, positioning him among the weakest in the league. The projections indicate that he may allow around 3.0 earned runs and give up 5.7 hits per game, which could spell trouble against a potent Tigers lineup that ranks 5th in batting average and 8th in home runs.

Casey Mize, the right-handed starter for Detroit, holds an 8-2 record with an excellent 2.86 ERA. Despite the projections suggesting he may also struggle slightly, Mize is still regarded as an average pitcher. With the Tigers’ offense firing on all cylinders, expectations are high for them to capitalize on Allen’s vulnerabilities.

The Guardians’ offense ranks 27th in the league, reflecting a significant struggle to generate scoring opportunities. Their best hitter has shown some promise recently, contributing 7 hits and 1 home run over the last week, but it might not be enough against a well-rounded Tigers squad that has been consistently strong this season.

Betting lines reflect a close contest, with the Guardians sitting at +115 and the Tigers at -135. Given the current form of both teams and their respective standings, it may be wise to favor the Tigers in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Casey Mize’s change-up percentage has jumped by 8.2% from last year to this one (18.1% to 26.3%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Zach McKinstry has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 83.6-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Detroit Tigers projected lineup today (.316 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .327 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+115)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Batters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Casey Mize who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+12.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 88 games (+13.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Matt Vierling has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 35% ROI)