Player Props Preview for Cardinals vs Cubs – 7/5/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

On July 5, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals in what promises to be an exciting National League Central matchup at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are currently in strong contention, boasting a record of 53-35, while the Cardinals sit at 47-42, representing an above-average season. The Cubs will be looking to build on their recent success, having won the previous game in the series, setting the stage for a competitive atmosphere.

Projected starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz is set to take the mound for the Cubs. Pomeranz has primarily been used in relief this season, making 26 appearances without a start, yet his impressive ERA of 0.00 suggests he has been exceptionally fortunate. However, with a projected 4.11 xFIP, there are concerns about sustainability. He is expected to pitch around 2.9 innings, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs, which may be tested against a Cardinals offense that ranks 15th in the league.

On the other side, St. Louis will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has had a more traditional starting role with 16 games under his belt and a solid 3.70 ERA. Liberatore’s average strikeout and walk rates could leave him vulnerable against a Cubs offense that ranks 4th overall, especially considering their power, as they have excelled in team home runs, ranking 5th in MLB.

Despite the Cubs’ bullpen being ranked 21st, the projections favor Chicago in this matchup due to their high offensive output. With a game total set at 10.5 runs, bettors should expect an offensive showcase, with the Cubs projected to score around 5.50 runs. The Cardinals, while competitive, may struggle to keep pace against the potent Cubs lineup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Matthew Liberatore’s 2103-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 11th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Nolan Gorman are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Pomeranz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #22 offense in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In the last 14 days, Carson Kelly’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.