See the Giants vs D-Backs Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Thursday July 3rd, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on July 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of a tightly contested series. The Giants edged out the Diamondbacks in a thrilling 6-5 matchup yesterday, which adds to the stakes of today’s game as both teams look to gain momentum in this National League West showdown.

Currently, the Diamondbacks sit at .500 with a record of 43-43, while the Giants boast a solid 46-41 record. Despite the Giants’ above-average performance, they rank as the 24th best offense in MLB this season, struggling particularly in team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Diamondbacks possess the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power, ranking 3rd in home runs with 128 this season. This dynamic sets the stage for a compelling matchup.

Brandon Pfaadt, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has had an inconsistent year, holding a 5.38 ERA and ranking as the 173rd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his xFIP of 4.05 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and might improve. Pfaadt’s ability to limit walks (5.6 BB% this year) could work to his advantage against a Giants lineup that leads the league in walks.

On the mound for the Giants is Robbie Ray, who has been excellent this season with a 2.75 ERA, ranking him 69th among pitchers. Yet, he has struggled with control, posting a high 9.5 BB%. Given the Diamondbacks’ patient approach at the plate, they could exploit Ray’s difficulties and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

The projections suggest a close battle, with the Diamondbacks having an average implied team total of 4.10 runs, while the Giants’ total sits at 4.40 runs. With both teams eyeing victory, expect an exciting contest at Chase Field.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Rafael Devers has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 102.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s slider percentage has dropped by 5.7% from last year to this one (27.3% to 21.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Typically, batters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Robbie Ray.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• James McCann – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s game, James McCann is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 63 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+13.50 Units / 135% ROI)