Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Orioles vs Rangers – July 1st, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Texas Rangers

On July 1, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Globe Life Field in a matchup of two struggling teams. After falling short in their recent clash, the Rangers hold a record of 41-44, while the Orioles sit at 37-47. Both teams are having below-average seasons, but the Rangers aim to turn things around.

Texas is set to start Jacob deGrom, who has been a bright spot in their rotation. Ranking as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, deGrom boasts an impressive 8-2 record and a stellar 2.08 ERA this season. However, his 3.29 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression, indicating that he has benefited from some good fortune. On average, he projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs while striking out 6.9 batters. Despite these numbers, he may face challenges against a low-walk Orioles offense, which could negate his strike-throwing capabilities.

Brandon Young, slated to start for Baltimore, has struggled in his limited appearances, with a record of 0-2 and a troubling ERA of 7.11. While the projections indicate he could improve, he still falls below average with a projected 4.1 strikeouts and 2.4 earned runs allowed over 5.1 innings.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 29th in MLB, struggling with both batting average and overall run production. Conversely, the Orioles, although not exceptional, rank 19th in overall offense and have shown some power with a decent home run ranking of 11th. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Rangers hold a moneyline of -195, making them significant favorites. It will be interesting to see if deGrom can leverage his elite status to lead Texas to a much-needed victory against a Baltimore team that remains inconsistent at the plate.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Brandon Young – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Brandon Young has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -14.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Cedric Mullins has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jackson Holliday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jacob deGrom faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Adolis Garcia has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 96.1-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 69 games (+19.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 away games (+14.63 Units / 32% ROI)
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+165/-220)
  Gary Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 71% ROI)