Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Mets – Tuesday, July 01, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Mets

On July 1, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field in a pivotal National League matchup. Both teams are in competitive positions, with the Mets holding a record of 48-37 and the Brewers sitting just behind at 47-37. This series opener could be crucial as both teams look to improve their standings in a tightly contested league.

In their last games, the Mets struggled against their opponents, dropping a heavy defeat by a score of 12-1 on June 29, while the Brewers lost narrowly, 4-3, on June 30. Both teams are experiencing good seasons overall and are well-matched in terms of pitching talent tonight. The Mets are projected to start Clay Holmes, ranked 48th among starters, boasting a solid ERA of 2.97. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season, potentially signaling that he could face challenges moving forward.

Opposing him will be Freddy Peralta, ranked 35th, who has an even better ERA of 2.90. His projections indicate he might allow an average of 2.7 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which is relatively standard. Both pitchers are right-handed and could impact the game similarly.

Offensively, the Mets feature the 7th best attack in MLB, supplemented by a powerful home run capability, whereas the Brewers sit at 19th best overall with struggles in power but excel in speed on the bases with the 2nd highest ranking in team stolen bases this season. The projections indicate a high-scoring affair with a game total set at 8.0 runs, making this an enticing matchup for bettors. The Mets’ current moneyline is set at -130, suggesting they are slight favorites. However, given their recent form and the projections, they may need a significant turnaround to fulfill those expectations.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Freddy Peralta’s 2448-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Sal Frelick has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 87-mph average to last year’s 83.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a notable advantage over groundball hitters, Clay Holmes and his 56.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in today’s game facing 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball batters like Brett Baty usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-125)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+12.27 Units / 26% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)