Team Stats and Prediction for Reds vs Red Sox Matchup 6/30/25

Cincinnati Reds

@

Boston Red Sox

On June 30, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Cincinnati Reds at Fenway Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Red Sox are currently struggling with a 41-44 record, reflective of a disappointing season, while the Reds sit at 44-40, boasting an above-average performance this year. Boston’s last game ended in a high-scoring affair, adding pressure as they look to reclaim momentum against Cincinnati.

Starting for the Red Sox is Garrett Crochet, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 6th among approximately 350 in MLB. This season, he has a strong 7-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.06, although his 2.71 xFIP suggests some luck in his performance thus far. Crochet’s average projections for the game indicate he will pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while striking out 7.5 batters, positioning him favorably against a Reds lineup that has been somewhat inconsistent.

Chase Burns, the Reds’ right-handed starter, ranks 43rd in MLB and has struggled with a 5.40 ERA in his limited starts. With just 1 game under his belt this season, his projections of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed reflect a pitcher still seeking form. Given Burns’s high strikeout rate of 38.1% matched against the Red Sox, who rank 3rd in strikeouts, he may find some success, but his overall performance remains a concern.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in the league, showcasing their potential despite their record. Meanwhile, the Reds are 13th in offense, with their best hitter recently displaying tremendous form, hitting .522 with a 1.477 OPS over the past week. Given the matchup dynamics and Crochet’s capabilities, the Red Sox appear poised to capitalize on their strengths and, as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -185, should be expected to perform well in this opening game of the series.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)
  Compared to the average hurler, Chase Burns has been granted a below-average leash this year, tallying an -14.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Santiago Espinal has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 81.9-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Garrett Crochet’s four-seamer rate has decreased by 11.9% from last season to this one (53.7% to 41.8%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Typically, hitters like Wilyer Abreu who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chase Burns.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.25 Units / 27% ROI)